So who is most likely to come out with the spot? Who isn't? Mike Riordan (Twitter: @coachmjr) is a fellow wrestling writer for SB Nation and joins me as we take a look at the arguments for, and against, each of the wrestlers.
How they got here
The Americans, largely Reece Humphrey and Shawn Bunch, failed to place high enough in any of the international qualifying tournaments prior to the 2012 U.S. Olympic Team Trials in April. The 2009 U.S. World Team member Shawn Bunch was tasked with wrestling in the Shanxi Province of China a week later in one of two remaining last chance Olympic qualifiers. To be sure that he was ready, Zeke Jones and USA Wrestling allowed him to sit out the Trials. Humphrey, it was widely assumed, was sitting out the Trials in case Bunch didn't place high enough and he'd be sent to Finland to qualify the weight at the final last chance. Bunch took third in China, qualifying the weight and eliminated the need for Humphrey to travel to Finland.
Meanwhile Coleman Scott, the third man on the 60-kilo ladder in 2011, won the Olympic Team Trials and was sent to Azerbaijan to compete in the World Cup. Scott went undefeated, defeating 2008 Olympic bronze medalist/2011 World bronze medalist Kenichi Yumoto (Japan) and Malkhaz Zarkua (Georgia), who had placed fifth at the Worlds.
All this drama left USA Wrestling in the position of deciding which wrestlers faced each other and when. The decision was made to give Bunch a bye based on the fact he qualified the weight and that Scott and Humphrey would have a single match wrestle-off to decide who faced Bunch. The Bunch vs. Humphrey/Scott Winner is a best-of-three competition.
Shawn Bunch (Photo/John Sachs, Tech-Fall.com)Why Bunch will win the spot
Foley: The guy has been around and having the momentum of qualification and the rest from having not had to plow through the Olympic Team Trials may very well benefit Bunch. The biggest advantage, however, comes from the fact that he has the entire day to rest, and won't have the extra stress of the first match. Maybe that's a disadvantage?
Riordan: Experience. Bunch has been competing on the senior freestyle circuit at a high level for longer than either of the other two competitors. He was third at the U.S. World Team Trials as far back as 2007 and was the runner-up at the 2008 U.S. Olympic Team Trials.
Why Bunch won't win the spot
Foley: He's been less than spectacular in the big tournaments and though he qualified the weight he did lose in the quarterfinals of the tournament. He matches up poorly with Humphrey and could be in trouble if a streaking Scott meets him in the finals.
Riordan: Pressure. Bunch has received a bye to the best-of-three finals once ... in the U.S. World team trials in 2010. There he dropped two straight matches to Mike Zadick. This time it's the U.S. Olympic Team Trials, the stakes are raised, and the pressure is more intense. Bunch has not proven that he can win the race from the pole position.
Reece Humphrey (Photo/John Sachs, Tech-Fall.com)Why Humphrey will win the spot
Foley: The man who took the spot in 2011 hasn't lost to American competition in a while. He beat Scott this year in the finals of the NYAC tournamen, 1-1, 1-0, and walked away with the deciding third match in last year's U.S. World Team Trials match against Bunch, 3-0, 3-0. Humphrey, like Bunch, trains at the Ohio Regional Training Center where he's getting great everyday looks by guys like the Stiebers.
Riordan: Pedigree. Even without a father who was a World medalist, Humphrey possesses the most impressive pedigree of all three competitors. He has been the top freestyle wrestler in every age group since high school. Humphrey was a Fargo champ, a FILA Junior World Team member, University World Team member, and a Senior World Team member. All that is missing from his collection is Olympic Team membership.
Why Humphrey won't win the spot
Foley: Rumor was that he's been a little dinged up which has held him out of competition for several months. That layoff could mean some mat rust something that could affect him in the one-and-done wrestle-off with white-hot Scott.
Riordan: Layoff. Humphrey last took the mat in live competition at the Yasar Dogu Invitational in February. Both of his competitors have taken part in substantial amounts of official competition in the meantime. Humphrey has some of the best workout partners available at the Ohio Regional Training Center, but there is no substitute for the real thing.
Coleman Scott (Photo/John Sachs, Tech-Fall.com)Why Scott will win the spot
Foley: Save Jordan Burroughs, Scott is the most "on" wrestler America has right now. Under the tutelage of Olympians Kendall Cross, Kenny Monday, and with the coaching of two-time Olympic gold medalist John Smith, it's easy to see that Scott will be have a game plan ready to utilize. The World Cup gold medalist could just be finding his stride when it matters the most.
Riordan: Scott was not tapped to qualify this weight and sit out of the original Trials. I have to imagine this made him a little mad. Since then, Scott has not lost a match, winning a very tough weight at the Trials and then going undefeated at the World Cup. Now to make the team he to beat last year's U.S World Team member, and then win twice against Shawn Bunch whose path to the best-of-three final ran through no domestic competition. This should fire up Scott considerably and he is dangerous when properly motivated.
Why Scott won't win the spot
Foley: He's taken some recent losses to his American opponents, including having never beaten Bunch and only bested Humphrey once (2009 World Team Trials, 1-0, 7-0). It's tough to assume that he can solve both riddles in the same day, though if he makes it past Humphrey he'll have an extra match to work out any wrinkles he has with Bunch's game.
Riordan: History. Scott is the only one of the three hopefuls who has not been a U.S. World Team member or U.S. Open Champion. This means that he has a track record of not being as good as Humphrey and Bunch when it has mattered most. He has to beat not one, but two, more domestically decorated wrestlers to win an Olympic berth. The odds are not in his favor.
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