A look at the four NCAA title contenders

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Penn State, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Minnesota, the only four programs to win NCAA championships over the past 23 seasons, will be in the hunt for a team title at the 2012 NCAA Division I Championships in St. Louis. Cornell, last year's NCAA runner-up, has four wrestlers ranked in the top 10, including two No. 1-ranked wrestlers, and could be in the hunt for a trophy, but at this point appears to lack the firepower up and down its lineup to be considered a major threat to win the NCAA title this season.

Let's examine each of the four NCAA title contenders and why each will or will not be hoisting the championship trophy on March 17 in St. Louis.

Penn State

David Taylor, Frank Molinaro, and Quentin Wright all reached the NCAA finals last season (Photo/Bill Ennis)

Why Penn State will win the NCAA title: The defending NCAA champion Nittany Lions have the most firepower of all the NCAA title contending teams, and as close to a sure-fire NCAA champion in David Taylor as there is in the country. Frank Molinaro (149), Taylor (165), Ed Ruth (174), and Quentin Wright (184) are all potential NCAA champions this season, and all have the ability to score lot of bonus points too. Molinaro, Taylor, Ruth, and Wright combined for 79 points last year at the NCAAs, and there is no reason to believe those four will not match or exceed that total this year. Then add in the points from potential All-Americans Nico Megaludus (125), Dylan Alton (157), Morgan McIntosh (197), and Cameron Wade (285), and it will be very difficult for any team to unseat Penn State.

Why Penn State will not win the NCAA title: Last year Penn State may have benefited from the NCAA tournament being in Philadelphia, a four-hour drive from State College, Pa. With the NCAAs being in St. Louis this year, it takes away any sort of home-mat advantage for Penn State. Wright, Penn State's lone NCAA champion, had a magical Big Ten and NCAA tournament run last season, winning the NCAA title as the No. 9 seed, but consistency is still a concern. This season Wright was dominated by Minnesota's Kevin Steinhaus, who is currently ranked eighth, and has also taken a loss to NCAA runner-up Robert Hamlin of Lehigh. If the Quentin Wright who took three straight losses last February and a 6-1 loss to Steinhaus in November, shows up in St. Louis, don't expect him to repeat his 23-point effort from last year's NCAAs. In addition, Penn State has two true freshmen, Megaludis and McIntosh, in its lineup. Both are talented and at this point appear capable of being key contributors in St. Louis. But there is still a lot of season left and it remains to be seen how Megaludis and McIntosh will hold up from the grind of the Big Ten season.

Iowa

Iowa's Matt McDonough is poised to make his third straight NCAA finals appearance and win his second NCAA title (Photo/Tony Rotundo, WrestlersAreWarriors.com)

Why Iowa will win the NCAA title: The Hawkeyes have a strong track record of peaking when it matters most and exceeding expectations. Iowa could push three or four wrestlers into the finals, and have seven or eight All-Americans. However, that is if virtually everything falls into place for the Hawkeyes. Matt McDonough, despite being ranked second at 125 pounds, has about as good a shot as anyone not named David Taylor, Jordan Oliver, or Kyle Dake to win an NCAA title this season. He has dominated top-ranked Zach Sanders of Minnesota over the past two and half seasons, going 4-0 with each of the last three victories coming by seven or more points. McDonough has two NCAA finals appearances in two attempts. Last year he scored the second most points at the NCAAs of all non-NCAA champions. (Boise State's Andrew Hochstrasser scored a half-point more.)

Montell Marion reached the NCAA finals two seasons ago, and was a controversial, overtime (tiebreaker) loss away from making another trip to the NCAA finals last season. Marion spent most of the first half of this season ranked No. 1 before losing in the finals of the Midlands Championships. He has the tools to be an NCAA champion, but just needs to put it together. Iowa also has a potential NCAA finalist in Derek St. John at 157 pounds, and some very talented freshmen in Michael Kelly (149), Mike Evans (165), and Bobby Telford (285).

Why Iowa will not win the NCAA title: Iowa does not have the firepower that Penn State does. Outside of McDonough, the Hawkeyes do not have a sure-fire NCAA finalist. Tony Ramos (133) has been wrestling well this season and looks primed to earn All-American honors, but it will be a tall order for him to reach the NCAA finals with Jordan Oliver of Oklahoma State and Logan Stieber of Ohio State residing in his weight class. Marion, like Ramos, will have his work cut out for him to reach the NCAA finals being in a weight class (141) that includes NCAA champion Kellen Russell of Michigan, NCAA finalist Boris Novachkov of Cal Poly, and top-ranked Kendric Maple of Oklahoma, who is undefeated and already owns a win over Marion. Marion is also dealing with off-the-mat issues after being arrested by University of Iowa police for driving while barred. Marion's future with the team remains in question. If the Hawkeyes lose Marion, it would take them out of the NCAA title hunt. Going into this season it appeared that Grant Gambrall could be a potential NCAA finalist at 184 pounds after finishing third at the NCAAs last season. But Gambrall recently made the move up to 197 pounds, and after his seventh-place finish at the Midlands Championships, it does not appear that Iowa can count on Gambrall to match or exceed his NCAA finish last year. There are question marks surrounding St. John's health. He missed the Midlands Championships and has not competed since Dec. 8. Kelly, Evans, and Telford have shown a lot of promise, but they are still freshmen who have yet to compete at the NCAA tournament.

Oklahoma State

Jordan Oliver dominated his competition at the Reno Tournament of Champions and was named Outstanding Wrestler (Photo/John Sachs, Tech-Fall.com)

Why Oklahoma State will win the NCAA title: The Cowboys have four wrestlers ranked in the top four, including a defending NCAA champion in Jordan Oliver, and five other wrestlers who could be in the hunt for All-American honors. That could translate into a lot of points for the Cowboys in St. Louis. Oliver scored 26 points at the NCAAs last season, which was second only to Jordan Burroughs' 26.5. He has been crushing opponents all season long. Sophomore Chris Perry has been on a roll this season for the Cowboys. The undefeated Perry, who won the Reno Tournament of Champions, recently moved down from 184 pounds to 174 pounds.

Jamal Parks (149) and Alan Gelogaev (285) are also undefeated and potential NCAA finalists for the Cowboys. (Gelogaev took an unofficial loss to Chad Hanke of Oregon State.) Both are ranked No. 2 in their respective weight classes. Cayle Byers (197) climbed to as high as No. 2 in the country earlier this season before some recent setbacks caused him to slide in the rankings. He had a win last season over NCAA champion Dustin Kilgore of Kent State. Jon Morrison (125), Josh Kindig (141), Albert White (157), and Dallas Bailey (165) are solid wrestlers capable of making noise at the NCAA tournament.

Why Oklahoma State will not win the NCAA title: Oklahoma State has underperformed in each of the past three NCAA tournaments. Last year the Cowboys were expected to be in the hunt for the NCAA title and finished fourth with three All-Americans. Two of their seeded wrestlers failed to win a match. Outside of Oliver, there are a lot of question marks up and down Oklahoma State's lineup. Morrison and Byers have lost to wrestlers on their own team and may not even be in the lineup in March. It remains to be seen how Perry will perform down a weight class. Parks has a history of wrestling close, low-scoring matches, which could bite him at the NCAA tournament.

Minnesota

Zach Sanders is undefeated and ranked No. 1 at 125 pounds (Photo/Jeff Beshey, The Guillotine)

Why Minnesota will win the NCAA title: Minnesota has the most balanced team of the contenders. This year's Gopher team is reminiscent of the 2001 Gopher team that won the NCAA championship with 10 All-Americans and no NCAA finalists. The Gophers currently have nine ranked wrestlers, including four returning All-Americans. Zach Sanders, a three-time All-American, is undefeated and ranked No. 1 at 125 pounds. Minnesota has a strong mix of senior leadership with All-Americans Sanders and Sonny Yohn, and young talent.

Minnesota's lineup includes seven freshmen or sophomores. All seven were InterMat Top 100 recruits coming out of high school. Those wrestlers include David Thorn (133), Nick Dardandes (141), Dylan Ness (149), Alec Ortiz (157), Logan Storley (174), Kevin Steinhaus (184), and Tony Nelson (285). Steinhaus and Nelson were All-Americans last season as freshmen.

Why Minnesota will not win the NCAA title: The Gophers do not have the horses that can be counted on to finish in the top three and score extra bonus points. Sanders is Minnesota's best hope for an NCAA finalist, but his path to a title will likely have to go through a wrestler (McDonough) that he has never beaten in college. Returning All-Americans Steinhaus, Yohn, and Nelson have all suffered losses to lower ranked wrestlers this season. The Gophers' freshmen may be talented, but they are still very much unproven at the Division I level. Minnesota recently suffered a major blow with the loss of Jake Deitchler at 157 pounds. Deitchler, a 2008 Olympian in Greco-Roman, announced his retirement from wrestling this week because of a long history with concussions.

Sign In

A look at the four NCAA title contenders

User Feedback

Recommended Comments

Create an account or sign in to comment

Create an account

Sign in

Categories

Rankings

Browse

Activity

Support