A First Look: Top Seeds at the 2024 NCAA Tournament

125: Wide Open The Undefeated: Braeden Davis, Penn St. (13-0) The Situation: The state of 125 has been chaotic all season. Although true freshman Davis is the only undefeated, nothing is certain at this weight. Top-ranked Matt Ramos, the defending NCAA finalist, has three losses and there are ten other guys at 125 with two losses or less. I don’t think there’s enough ‘meat on the bone’ in conferences outside the B1G that would propel a champ to the top spot. In the PAC, Richie Figeroa already has two losses, and the next guy up, Brandon Kaylor has six. The ACC has been rather mediocre at the weight, overall. There are two non-B1G’s that could get it should 1) they win out and 2) the BIG Champ is someone with a relatively high number of losses. Those two would be a one-loss EIWA Champ Luke Stanich (Lehigh) or a one-loss Noah Surtin (Missouri) should he win out and capture the Big 12 title. Top Seed Prediction: Big Ten Champion 133: Two Man Race The Undefeated: #1-Ryan Crookham, Lehigh (14-0); #3-Daton Fix, OK State (8-0); #4-Dylan Ragusin, Michigan (16-0) The Situation: Barring something unforeseen, this seems pretty clear. Crookham controls his own destiny. He has the best wins (Vito, Nagao, Colaiocco) of the undefeated. A rematch with Vito in the EIWA finals seems likely. Should he win out, he’ll no doubt be the top seed. If Vito wins the rematch at EIWA’s, a Big 12 Champ Daton Fix would be the clear top seed. He only has eight matches but he bonuses both #6-Kai Orine (NCST) and #7-Evan Frost (ISU). Ragusin, with a win over #5-Nagao, has an outside shot, but would need several things to happen. He’d have to win B1G’s, have Vito beat Crookham, and see Daton stumble, which isn’t likely given Daton’s remaining schedule. Vito, of course, has a shot, but he’d need to win EIWA’s and have both Ragusin and Daton lose. Top Seed Prediction: Crookham if he beats Vito; Fix if he doesn’t 141: All About The B1G The Undefeated: #1-Real Woods, Iowa (12-0); #2-Beau Bartlett, Penn St. (13-0) The Situation: Jesse Mendez, at 18-1 is ranked #3 in the country meaning the Top 3 guys in the nation are all from the B1G. The only other wrestlers with less than two losses are West Virginia’s Jordan Titus and Lock Haven’s Wyatt Henson, who are ranked 10th and 11th, respectively. Woods has Bartlett and #8-Tagen Jamison before conference weekend. Bartlett has both Woods and Mendez. But none of that probably matters as the man who is standing on top of the Big Ten conference podium is almost assuredly the Top Seed in Kansas City. Top Seed Prediction: Big Ten Champ 149: Another Clear 2-Man The Undefeated: #1-Ridge Lovett, Nebraska (19-0); #6-Austin Gomez, Michigan (4-0) The Situation: Virginia Tech’s #2-Caleb Henson has just the loss to Lovett from CKLV finals. Like Real Woods at 141, if Lovett wins out, he’s your obvious top seed. But Gomez has looked fantastic and is 2-0 against Lovett in previous seasons. Those two are slated to meet this Feb. 9th. Even if they split, I don’t see Henson jumping both of them considering the head-to-head from Vegas. So whoever wins last (e.i. The B1G final) should be the 1. Top Seed Prediction: Big Ten Champ 157: Dare I Say, As Crazy as 125 The Undefeated: #1-Levi Haines, Penn St. (10-0); #3-Vinny Zerban, Northern Colorado (17-0) The Situation: Haines is not only one of just two undefeated's, but also ranked #1 and the highest returning placer from last year’s NCAA’s. So slam dunk, right? Not at this weight. To say ‘Should he win out…’ would be lazy considering 1) he just escaped sudden victory with #21-Chase Saldate (MSU), 2) the depth of the weight, 3) the tight margins we see everywhere at the weight and 4) the significant remaining schedule for the top contenders. Consider that #2-Jared Franek has not only lost to #6-Michael Blockhus (MINN), but he’s also had a last-second scare from #13-Cody Chittum (ISU), a win over #16-Joey Blaze (PUR) without a takedown, and, most recently, an OT victory over #19-Trevor Chumbley. The point is, no matter how good these guys are, the margins are too slim to just project winning out for anyone. In addition B1G’s, which will have #1, #2, #6, #9, #10, #16, #19, #20, and #21, Haines and Franek are set to hit in a dual, Haines also has Peyton Robb. All the while, undefeated Vinny Zerban is lurking and Meyer Shapiro is still in play as a top seed. Those two guys have different attributes for seeding: Zerban, though undefeated, has the best win of #11-Daniel Cardenas (Stanford). He also beat Saldate, but other than that his competition has been light. Shapiro, on the other hand, has two losses (both on the same day at CKLV), but has wins over #5-Brock Mauller (MIZZ) and #8-Bryce Andonian (VT). Zerban will have to navigate a Big 12 bracket with #5, #13, #14, #15, and #18. And there will be no room for error. A loss and he’ll be out of top seed contention. Meyer has #7-Ed Scott (NCST) in a dual and then an EIWA conference tournament that has no other competitor ranked Top 20. This is all to say that Meyer still has a fighting chance should the guys in the B1G cannibalize each other, which results have shown is absolutely possible. Top Seed Prediction: Too Soon To Tell 165: Arrowheads The Undefeated: #1-Keegan O’Toole, Missouri (13-0); #7-Mitch Mesenbrink, Penn St. (14-0) The Situation: The only remaining undefeated's are both Arrowhead HS (Wisconsin) alums. O’Toole is the front-runner for the top seed as a two-time defending NCAA Champ who is undefeated and ranked #1. That being said, he still has #3-David Carr (ISU) and #4-Izaak Olejnik (OKST) in duals and then again at the Big 12 tournament. If he wins out, it’s a no-brainer. But although he’s the favorite to do so, that’s one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country. Mesenbrink’s best win is Cam Amine (MICH), who was ranked 7th at the time. But he still has a dual matchup with #6-Mikey Caliendo (Iowa) and a B1G tournament with him, #5-Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin), #9-Caleb Fish (MSU) and #10-Amine. For Mesenbrink to capture the top seed, he’ll need to win out and have KOT lose at Big 12’s. Even if Carr were to beat Keegan in a dual, I’d bet the farm on the seeding committed making sure he and Carr were on opposite sides at NCAA’s. For Carr, he has a clear path to the top seed as well and that is to beat Keegan both in the dual and at Big 12’s. Let’s summarize the path to #1 seed: KOT: Win Big 12’s Carr: Win out Mesenbrink: Win out + KOT wins dual with Carr + Carr wins Big 12’s The above isn’t guaranteed, but rather my assumption based on past seeding/thought processes. Top Seed Prediction: Big 12 Champ 174: Next Topic Nittany Lion The Undefeated: #1-Carter Starocci, Penn St. (8-0); #2-Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech (8-0) The Situation: In pursuit of his fourth NCAA title, Starocci is undefeated and as dominant as he’s ever been. Even in the toughest conference in the nation, his winning out looks like a foregone conclusion. Starocci beat Mekhi in the All-Star Classic, which technically doesn’t count and yet kind of does because, ya know, we watched it. It happened. Top Seed Prediction: Carter Starocci 184: Next Topic Panther Train The Undefeated: #1-Parker Keckeisen, Northern Iowa (15-0) The Situation: Keckeisen beat #5-Bernie Traux (Penn St.) at the All-Star Classic, and won a monster CKLV that had the following in the bracket: #2, #3, #4, #7, #8, and #10. Additionally, he beat #2-Dustin Plott (OKST) in a dual last week. Although he has #10-Will Feldkamp (ISU) and #11-Clayton Whiting (MIZZ) in duals and both of them plus Plott at Big 12’s, it would be shocking for anyone to knock him off prior to NCAA’s. Top Seed Prediction: Parker Keckeisen 197: Next Topic Nittany Lion The Undefeated: #1-Aaron Brooks, Penn St. (9-0); #2-Stephen Buchanan, Oklahoma (18-0); #3-Trent Hidlay, North Carolina St. (17-0) The Situation: It’s a pretty odd situation in that the top three guys are all 1) undefeated 2) dominant 3) credentialed. All of them have placed Top 3 at NCAA’s with Hidlay making a final. They are also, conveniently, in three different conferences. But of course, Brooks is chasing history as he goes for his fourth NCAA title. And there’s very little in his way prior to the big dance. He’ll be heavily favored in all duals and at the B1G tournament where there is just one other Top 10 197lber. - #5-Jaxon Smith (Maryland), who Brooks just majored two days ago. Hidlay has #7-Jacob Cardenas (Cornell) in a dual but should cruise at ACC’s with no other Top 10’s. Buchanan has the biggest task in remaining undefeated with #6-Tanner Sloan (SDSU) and #16-Luke Surber (OKST) in duals followed by the Big 12 tournament which has both of them plus one-loss Rocky Elam (MIZZ). Top Seed Prediction: Aaron Brooks 285: Does the All-Star Count, or Nah? The Undefeated: #1-Greg Kerkvliet, Penn St. (8-0); #2-Wyatt Hendrickson, Air Force (14-0); #3-Yonger Bastida, Iowa St. (17-0); #5-Zach Elam, Missouri (17-0) The Situation: Kerkvliet has many things going for him. He’s ranked #1 and the perception across the country is he’s the clear best in the field this year. He’s also the highest returning placer after a runner-up finish last year. And he’s undefeated. However, his best win this year is over Michigan’s Lucas Davison who now has three losses and dropped out of the Top 5. That is, of course, if you don’t count the utterly dominant win over Hendrickson at the All-Star Classic. And, by seeding process, you’re not supposed to. That creates a conundrum as 1) Kerkvliet is not going to have an opportunity to beat any Top 5 guys before NCAA’s and 2) three of the current Top 5 are both undefeated and in the same conference. That means whoever wins Big 12’s is going to have a crazy good score come out of the seeding formula. Usually, the “All-Star-Classic-Doesn’t-Count” conundrum works itself out and doesn’t come into play. But I just don’t see how it does this year at HWT. If Kerkvliet is the #1 seed (and he should be) at NCAA’s, that means the committee took matters into their own hands (and they should). Top Seed Prediction: Greg Kerkvliet

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