2024 NCAA Conference Allocation Takeaways

Yesterday, NCAA DI Conference Allocations were released. Initially, we responded with an article regarding ranked wrestlers who missed the allocation cut. Now, we’re getting into some general takeaways regarding the allocations. Some weights/conferences stood out immediately as ones where conferences appeared to get shorted and there are plenty of interesting situations that could arise depending on conference results. 1. 141 in the ACC only gets three bids Probably the first thing that caught my eye and some of my co-worker’s eyes were 141 lbs in the ACC. There are four wrestlers currently ranked in InterMat’s top-16 from the ACC. They only received three automatic bids to Kansas City. More interesting is that the ACC wrestlers at this weight that earned those bids were #4 Ryan Jack, #5 Lachlan McNeil, and NR Jack Gioffre. #14 Cole Matthews and #16 Tom Crook did not earn bids. There’s a world where all of these wrestlers likely compete in Kansas City, through three automatic bids and two at-large berths. I wouldn’t want to rely on that; however. 141 lbs already has seven ranked wrestlers who didn’t earn bids and only six at-large’s available. That’s before any upsets at the conference tournament. So, how did this happen? Because Crook only had 14 DI matches at 141 lbs, he didn’t qualify for an RPI. In November, Crook competed in two open tournaments at 149 lbs. Cole Matthews finished one slot under the needed RPI and was significantly under the benchmark in winning percentage. (.720 - .625). What I don’t like about Matthews missing it, in particular, is that it legitimizes the fact that wrestlers are oftentimes better off not wrestling tough matches. Matthews suffered four losses to wrestlers who finished the year ranked in the top-13 nationally. If you take those four off his record, he still comes up just shy of the needed winning percentage; but it’s close. Or substitute those losses for a couple of wins at a “Last Chance Qualifier” and he’s in good position. All year, I’ve been upset about good individual matchups not materializing. Injury and illness are difficult to avoid in wrestling and sometimes they rear their ugly heads. But other times, games are played. I don’t like the idea of punishing a wrestler who constantly answered the bell, as Matthews did. Your answer to my plight for Matthews may be “win more matches,” and I’m sure that’s his mindset. I’d imagine Matthews thinks he let a few get away to opponents he should’ve beaten. But, let’s not act as if he didn’t have a handful of quality wins. One of only two people to beat #2 Jesse Mendez, defeated #4 Ryan Jack a CKLV champion, and #5 Lachlan McNeil. Plus, he pinned Tom Crook, though that win suddenly doesn’t look good from a qualification standpoint, since Crook didn’t earn a bid. My opinion is that Matthews places top-three at ACC’s and takes matters into his own hands. At the end of the day, we’ll probably have the best guys in Kansas City, but I don’t like the precedent we’re working with when it comes to rewarding wrestlers for showing up as little as possible. 2. Changes in Initial Allocations Per Conference ACC = - 5 (33 to 28) Big 12 = -7 (64 to 57) Big Ten = +3 (85 to 88) EIWA = +8 (45 to 53) MAC = -1 (23 to 22) Pac-12 = +5 (19 to 24) SoCon = +2 (12 to 14) These are the changes from 2023 to 2024 for wrestlers who earned allocations for their conferences. Those 2023 numbers are strictly the initial allocations, not bids that had to be thrown back or anything like that. The biggest impact on a single conference was the improvement of Little Rock and subsequently, the allocations for the Pac-12. The Trojans were responsible for five allocations in 2024, which is exactly the overall number the league improved by from last year to this one. The ACC had a significant drop-off for a conference that typically is growing. We mentioned a few 141’s that were expected to earn bids. There was also another top-15 wrestler from the league who missed out on earning a bid (Holden Heller - 165). Then you consider that North Carolina and Virginia are both a bit younger than usual. With those points in mind, there shouldn’t be any long-term worries about the conference. 3. 174 lbs better be careful One of the most significant takeaways from the final weekend of the regular season was the injury to three-time NCAA champion Carter Starocci. At this time, we’re still not completely aware of just how serious his knee injury is. What can’t be disputed is that it looked bad and so didn’t Starocci’s reaction. Many people are anticipating Starocci not being able to complete the tournament. If Starocci gets the first seed, he’d have to win his first match in the quarterfinals to lock up a spot in the semis, and therefore, the top-six. With the Big Ten getting eight wrestlers in automatically, that would put him in Kansas City. If Starocci is unable to compete, at all, and injury defaults in back-to-back matches, that would leave him a match shy of the top-eight and needing an at-large berth. As things stand right now, there are five ranked wrestlers at 174 lbs and only four at-large berths. That doesn’t account for Starocci needing one and any other upsets that occur during conference weekend. For the rest of the weight class, get within qualification status! You really don’t want to be relying on an at-large at 74. 4. Teams with multiple wrestlers on the wrong side of the allocation bubble As I was putting together the list of ranked wrestlers who did not earn allocations for their conference, I noticed teams with multiple wrestlers listed. That makes me wonder whether these teams have someone familiar with the numerical portion of the process. If their wrestlers were close to hitting the benchmarks in one of the categories used, why didn’t they go to a Last Chance Qualifier event and try to pad the stats? I don’t love the idea of doing that, but it’s within the rules in this qualification process and only helps your wrestlers and your conference. 5. Watch what Iowa does All eyes are typically on anything that Iowa does, so why should conference entries be any different? Iowa has a couple of options at multiple weights (133, 149, 184, and 285 lbs). First and foremost, Caleb Rathjen (149) and Bradley Hill (285) both earned allocations for the Big Ten. If either of them do not enter the Big Ten Championships, their allocation is thrown into the at-large pool. The word out of Iowa City is that Rathjen should go, so that isn’t a concern. What happens at heavyweight remains to be seen. True freshman Ben Kueter has shown that he can probably go deep at nationals this year with wins over #11 Konner Doucet (Oklahoma State) during his last outing. All year, the Iowa staff has gone back and forth between Brody Teske and Cullan Schriever at 133 lbs. Neither earned an at-large, so nothing changes for the conference with either entrant. Of course, we also have 184 lbs. Iowa did not earn an allocation at the weight. Gabe Arnold has bumped up for key duals and fared very well at the weight. I don’t see Tom Brands throwing Arnold out there under these circumstances, but should he do so, Arnold would have to qualify by placement rather than getting an at-large. 6. The Ivy League earned 23 bids There will be plenty of changes to the allocation process next year with conference realignment and one wrestling-specific wrinkle is that the Ivy League teams will be qualifying directly through their conference - rather than through the EIWA. If the EIWA and Ivy split this year, you’d have the Ivy League with 23 automatic bids and the EIWA with 30. Those are pretty solid numbers for an EIWA that has been dominated by the Ivy schools, of late. When the announcement was made regarding this split, you hoped that this wouldn’t negatively impact either potential conference. With this year’s numbers, that looks like it’s not the case.

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